Latest opinion survey: Could Trump really triumph?
According to the latest political opinion surveys in America, Hillary Clinton is the front-runner to become the next US President – but it’s not yet a done deal.
According to the latest average of opinion surveys and polling, Clinton still has the overall edge over Trump. The Democrats were confident of a win only last week, but the opinion surveys are changing pretty much hourly. New revelations have emerged about Clinton’s email saga, and commentators predict even more mud-slinging will occur in the run-up to the election. Plus, with the notorious ‘swing states’ still being hard fought for, and voter turnout differing on the day, there is still a chance that the UK could be waking up to a very different America on 9th November.
Donald Trump has recently accused the opinion surveys and polling of being ‘phony’, claiming he is actually winning. However laughable it may seem from the opinion survey data, what is unsettling is that this extremely opinionated potential president cannot fail to see his own shortcomings. Trump’s campaign has been immensely controversial to date, and much to the surprise of the early opinion surveys and polls he did indeed receive the Republican nomination. Whatever your feelings towards the man himself, you cannot deny that he has been successful in dividing not only most of his country but the rest of the world by his strong opinions. You can’t say that he doesn’t get people taking, and he does certainly say what he thinks, no matter who he manages to offend in the process. And as the possible leader of the next free world, it could be said that scandalous comments, controversial attitudes, aggressive behaviour and undeniable bigotry towards certain minorities aren’t qualities most would want in their leader. But could he really still win?
As survivors of the infamous shock ‘Brexit’ result, we in the UK all know opinion surveys and polls can be misleading. Just four short weeks ago, on the first presidential debate, Trump’s popularity in some swing states was so powerful that Nate Silver (the famous statistician) put Trump’s chances of winning to over 45%.
Clinton has certainly suffered with the very public FBI investigations. What’s more, many Republicans who dislike Trump may not necessarily vote for Clinton. Some Republicans are urging their followers to ‘split their ticket’, when looking to pick senators and congressmen from each party, so that the Democrats aren’t able to gain too much power. This may harm Hillary Clinton’s chances of victory.
So what might happen IF the event occurs of Donald Trump being the next US President? Opinion surveys say that the threat of terrorist attacks will rise, and that the already bad feeling between Russia and the West will increase. Apparently, according to Trump’s manifesto, he will build a wall between the US and Mexico, which he will force the Mexicans to pay for. Allegedly, all Muslims will also be banned from entering the States. Hillary Clinton will be thrown into prison, and illegal immigrants will be immediately deported. Or so Trump says.
In reality, Trump has contradicted his own policies on many occasions, and if the opinion surveys and polling have any weight the Democrats may still take back the Senate and would block many of Trump’s extreme policies.
So, it may still be possible for Trump to triumph. Somewhat unlikely at present, if the data from the opinion surveys is correct, but it could happen. What remains to be seen of Trump’s legacy will be decided by the American people on 8th November 2016. The world watches with baited breath – and we are certainly not alone in hoping the current political opinion surveys and polls are accurate this time.
What do you think? Do you think Trump could really win, and if so what would it mean? Let us know what you have to say by joining the discussion on our Facebook page, and don’t forget to earn money by sharing your views online in our latest paid opinion surveys at Opinion Outpost UK.